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Readers of our Weekly report will have noticed that there is a new trend developing in China’s aluminium smelters.   Instead of cutting capacity – a decision which brings with it a risk that the local government will veto the move – Chinese smelters are now announcing maintenance outages. Chalco’s Huaze plant in Shanxi province […]

By: Paul Adkins | Read More

Reuters is reporting that the CNIA has asked the Strategic Reserves Board (SRB) to purchase metal in order to revive the price. A report in the Financial Times says the CNIA has also called for an investigation into short selling. Asking the SRB to buy metal is wrong on so many counts.  Fundamentally, it ignores […]

By: Paul Adkins | Read More

Someone asked me today how to get the latest blog posts to feed to their internet browser using RSS.   My knowledge of things beyond the blank page where I type these blog posts is very modest.   I had to look up what RSS was, and discover to my horror that it means Real […]

By: Paul Adkins | Read More

SHFE aluminium prices are low enough, but the prices are low all the way to Thanksgiving 2016. What I mean is, SHFE forward prices are under RMB10,000 for a full 12 months ahead.    The market is not only pricing in a poor immediate situation, it’s also saying there’s little to no contango. In the local […]

By: Paul Adkins | Read More

It is looking like the RMB10,000 barrier will be broken today.   The China aluminium price is teetering on the edge, with Shanghai cash sitting at RMB9,950 and Changjiang at RMB9,960.   That puts it at US$1,570 including VAT, or US$1,340 on a straight comparison with the LME.  However, the SHFE price is still sitting […]

By: Paul Adkins | Read More

This was the view of a leading Chinese academic, Wang Tao, when I interviewed him about the new “inti-petcoke” law in China. Mr Wang, from the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy was talking about the potential impact on the international aluminium community, if China were to stop or reduce exports of low sulphur petcoke. Mr […]

By: Paul Adkins | Read More


Maintenance - new way to describe capacity cuts

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