Posts Tagged ‘Rio Tinto’

Chalco’s Guinea play – a contrarian view

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

Shares in Chalco jumped this morning, after yesterday’s announcement of a tie up with Rio Tinto in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea. The signing ceremony, held in the Great Hall of the People here in Beijing, has been well-reported by all the major media companies, so I won’t repeat the details here.

I would like to ask a couple of questions however.

Nowhere in any of the press that I have read has anyone reported the views of the Guinean Government about the deal. Sure, it has been said that the government may exercise its option to take up to 20% of the equity, but have they actually approved the entry by Chalco into the equity structure? it would be a great loss of face, after yesterday’s ceremony, if the Government turned around and said no.

Of course, this is unlikely. It has been said that the only reason Rio has taken Chalco as a partner is to help it with its negotiations with the Guinean Government. China has been quietly supporting and funding the government for some time, so this is probably payback time.

Second, what other reason could Rio possibly have for taking Chalco as a partner. Rio does not need expertise in building mine infrastructure and logistics – it has done the Pilbara for instance. Chalco has no experience in foreign iron ore mines, or large scale infrastructure projects. Perhaps Rio was hoping Chalco would have easy access to additional funds.

Third, why is everyone getting so excited? Sure, Chalco is getting a low price for a high equity position ($1.4bn for 45%), but payback is 5 years away, and the project will need up to another $6 billion in funding in order to get the ore to market. Anyone who has invested in mine projects knows that the money you stump up at first has to be topped up if you want to retain your equity value.

Finally, who owns the marketing rights to the ore? Hopefully Rio will retain the rights. Otherwise, they will be competing with themselves. In a supply-constrained world, it might not be a problem, but a long-term venture such as this needs protection built in for all scenarios, including the time when buyers control the price, not sellers.

Chinalco eying Mongolian copper, gold

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

This article comes from Dow Jones News Wires.   The story is roughly in line with some talk inside industry circles in China, that Chinalco is considering getting out of primary aluminium.   Given they are poorly placed with electricity pricing, and don’t seem to be able to bring Aurukun to reality, it may be no surprise if they do gradually migrate out of the shiny metal and into the red metal.

 

Aluminum Corp. of China is considering purchasing a direct minority stake in one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold-and-copper mine deposits, according to project partner Rio Tinto PLC.

Canada’s Ivanhoe Mines Ltd owns a 66% stake in the Mongolian Oyu Tolgoi project and has previously expressed interest in selling a minority stake to a second strategic investor. Rio Tinto PLC owns an indirect interest in the project through its 29.6% equity stake in Ivanhoe Mines.

Aluminum Corp., also known as Chinalco, “has indicated an interest” in acquiring a minority equity stake in Ivanhoe or a minority interest in the Oyu Tolgoi project, Rio Tinto said in a U.S. Securities and Exchange regulatory filing Wednesday.

“If any arrangement is agreed, it may be a bipartite or tripartite arrangement with” Ivanhoe and/or Rio Tinto, Rio Tinto added, saying the government of Mongolia would have to support any deal.

A Chinalco executive, who declined to be named, told Dow Jones Newswires that the company is committed to exploring investment in overseas projects and would like to deepen its cooperation with Rio Tinto, in which it holds a roughly 9% stake.

A Mongolian government official said the government hasn’t been consulted yet on any plans for a stake sale in the mine or Ivanhoe. Ivanhoe and the Mongolian government, which owns a 34% stake in the Oyu Tolgoi project, have the first right of refusal if either party wants to sell a stake.

Rio Tinto is also discussing plans with Ivanhoe to convert its indirect equity stake in the project “into a direct ownership interest,” Rio Tinto said.

Rio Tinto paid $393 million on June 29 to exercise warrants that increased the Anglo-Australian’s stake in Ivanhoe to 29.6% from 22.4%. Rio still has enough warrants to increase its stake up to 44%.

Rio Tinto has also had discussions about the project with numerous parties including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and The International Finance Corporation.

Rio Tinto intends to continue its discussions with Ivanhoe, Chinalco, the EBRD, the IFC and other third parties, including the government of Mongolia, the filing said.

An Ivanhoe spokesman declined to comment on the filing but referred to a May 21 statement that said that talks on financing were ongoing.

Tomago set to close?

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

Your humble blogger spent 4 years or more at this smelter in Newcastle Australia. Today I went back to my old stomping ground (a bit of a change from Beijing’s 40 degrees to the rain and cold here in Australia.)

The scuttlebutt doing the rounds in Newcastle is that Rio Tinto Aluminium is threatening/thinking about closing this smelter. My source is highly unreliable, but it got me thinking.

Tomago started in 1970, and went through a number of expansions. The most recent was the upgrade from AP18 to AP22. The general opinion at the time was that the expansion was not worth it, although i guess that depends on how you cost the extra 50,000 tonnes of metal against the $200+ million that the expansion cost. But there are plenty of older smelters out there, including Kurri Kurri up the road from Tomago, and Point Henry, where I first entered the world of aluminium.

I suspect the real issue for the continuing viability of this smelter is not capital cost, but energy.

I confess my memory is hazy, but I seem to recall that the major power contract expires 2014. The power contract is actually in at least 2 parts that I know of. (Like everywhere else, it was highly sensitive and extremely confidential – and I was not on the list of insiders.) Tomago had to negotiate a separate power contract for the AP22 expansion. Plus there were all sorts of triggers and penalties according to the load and the total KwH that the plant took. Power for electrolysis had different pricing than for utility power.

Out of warped loyalty for my old stomping ground, I will not disclose the number that I understood we were paying on average. Plus my information is now 5 years old. But let’s just say it is higher than $20 but lower than $30.

But as many people would know, electricity contracts can take years to negotiate. The Joint Venture Partners – RTA, Hydro and an Australian conglomerate called CSR – no doubt are already planning their approach to the Government on how to remodel the existing contract.

They will probably be negotiating with a new government next year, as the present Labor government is staring at a major defeat next March. Probably the negotiating team has examined which of the two parties is likely to deliver a better power contract. While a new Conservative government should be more sympathetic to business, the team may well have decided that an outgoing government has nothing to lose. Newcastle is a strong Labor voter area – neither political party is going to gain by pork-barrelling the voters in that region.

Importantly, the negotiating team will have studied the Alcoa electricity arrangements (in Victoria, a different State). Alcoa secured a very favourable new contract, but used very tough negotiating tactics, including the threat that an uncompetitive power deal would lead to the loss of thousands of jobs.

Newcastle is a city already used to the loss of major industry, having lost the BHP steel mills a dozen years ago. It has taken the town this long to recover. This stands the smelter in good position in its negotiations with the government.

Maybe there is a chance that the smelter will close if a good power price is not achieved. But if I were playing the Tomago hand, an initial raise is the obvious play. After all, both teams are playing for very high stakes.

Tomago uses 8% of the State’s electricity production.

There are other issues of course. Most of Tomago’s metal goes to Japan and China, but China is set to become a net exporter, and a tough competitor for the Japan market. During my time there, Tomago had difficulty getting iron levels down to international best practice. And RTA is already having enough trouble still trying to digest the old Alcan smelters – the fully-owned ones, never mind the JV’s.

China’s aluminum demand will rise: Rio Tinto

Thursday, July 1st, 2010

The folks at Rio Tinto clearly don’t actually listen to their people inside China, presuming of course that the people inside China are watching the market and not watching for the police.

At the start of this year, I was as bullish as these guys, forecasting a 25% increase in apparent consumption.   Since then, I have moderated back to 15%.   Why?     Because the Government is slowing the rate of urbanisation, and because industrial production is also slowing.

My friend Jorge Vazquez argues that the best indicator of the market is smelter output.   If smelter output is falling, it means demand is falling.   Here in China, smelter output is set to fall by up to 2 million tonnes over the next 3 months.

Time will tell.

 

 

Rio Tinto Alcan says China’s increasing industrial demand will underpin the Australian aluminium industry.

Chinese company Chalco yesterday announced its decision to pull out of a proposed bauxite mine at Aurukun in Queensland’s western Cape York. Chalco says the decision was made due to a decline in the aluminium industry.

But RioTinto chief financial officer Phillip Strachan says he expects demand from China is likely to increase by 22 per cent this year. Mr Strachan says aluminium prices have bounced back from last year’s lows but he says Rio Tinto’s balanced position should cushion the company from any low prices in the future.

Rio Tinto is continuing with the expansion of its refinery in Yarwun near Gladstone in central Queensland, which will increase annual output by two million tonnes.

Stern Hu gets 10 years jail

Sunday, March 28th, 2010

Rio Tinto employee Stern Hu has been sentenced to 10 years imprisonment, while is three colleagues have received sentences of between 7 and 14 years. All four were found guilty of receiving bribes and stealing commercial secrets.

Stern Hu trial to start Monday

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu will go on trial in China next Monday.

Hu and three Chinese employees of Rio Tinto have been charged with receiving bribes and infringing commercial secrets.

The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs says it has been told the hearings dealing with commercial secrets will be held in a closed court and Australian consular officials will be unable to attend.

They say they are asking for that decision to be reconsidered.

Rio to restart Arvida cathodes plant

Monday, March 1st, 2010

Rio Tinto Alcan will restart operations at its cathode production centre (CPC) at the Arvida smelter in Saguenay, Quebec.

“The CPC restart is taking shape thanks to an agreement with employees regarding the implementation of a work organisation adapted to the CPC’s new business context. The CPC therefore remains well positioned to maintain its leadership in American markets and develop new products that meet our customers’ criteria,” said Dominique Bouchard, vice president, Primary Metal, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Rio Tinto Alcan.

The CPC was temporarily idled in spring 2009. The restart is a part of our global cathode production strategy and will allow the facility to meet the needs of both internal and external customers.

Cathodes are a basic material for pot lining in aluminium smelters. They cover the bottom of the pot shell and serve as a buffer between the metal and electrolytic bath during the smelting process. They also serve as an electrode, with electric current flowing from the anode to the cathode, and enable the transfer of energy from one pot to another.

Ironic ore?

Saturday, February 13th, 2010

I have received more than one comment suggesing that a deal has been reached with the Chinese on an iron ore contract.   One of my sources even went so far as to say that the price is a 40% increase, to about the same level as the current spot price of iron ore.

If these reports are true, it will be ironic that this deal has been reached at the same time that Chinese authorities have announced that they are proceeding with charges against Stern Hu, Rio’s man in Shanghai (prison).

Personally, I remain skeptical about the whole Stern Hu thing.    I have a Chinese wife, so I know how many time she is scolded by Chinese retailers, who tell her that she should be helping them rip me off.   They don’t like it that she asks for a discount for a foreigner.   How much more so then, for a Chinese born man to be helping a foreign company make huge profits at the expense of Chinese companies.   His Australian passport means nothing compared to his heritage, in the eyes of many.

Naturally, there won’t be anything like this in any official pronouncement, but i am sure that there is at least some truth in it.

Meantime, I am off to buy some shares in Rio and BHP Billiton.

Rio veteran Bauert takes over the reins in China

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

The following article is one of many that appeared in the world’s newspapers following Rio’s press release of last Friday.   This one comes from Australia’s Farifax newspapers.

It illustrates that the reporter doesn’t really understand how Rio Tinto’s organisation structure works.   Bauert’s role is not a front line role at all.   He is in charge of the China presence of Rio, but has no operational responsibilities.    His duties include such things as control of the accounting, HR and other back-end roles.   Of course, Government Relations are at the top of that list, but the alumina, iron ore and other divisions of Rio have no reporting line through to him.

 

Rio Tinto has turned to company stalwart and China expert Ian Bauert to fill the management and representative void in China created by the shock arrest of its Stern Hu-led iron ore marketing team in July last year.

Mr Bauert has been appointed Rio’s managing director for China, based in Shanghai. He was most recently managing director of sales and marketing for iron ore, based in Australia and Singapore. But for the past six months, Mr Bauert has spent most of his time in Shanghai repairing relationship bridges for Rio.

The group’s relationships in China were put under severe stress last year when Rio walked away from a refinancing deal with China’s state-owned Chinalco, preferring to cosy up to BHP Billiton in a proposed joint venture in the Pilbara. Rio then led the way for the Pilbara iron ore producers to secure a much higher iron ore price than the Chinese steel industry, now the world’s biggest, thought was reasonable.

All that was followed by the July arrest of Mr Hu – an Australian citizen – and his colleagues on charges that have since been downgraded from crimes against the state to industrial espionage and bribery. While his new position is more senior, Mr Bauert is effectively replacing the Shanghai-based role of Anthony Loo. Mr Loo has since relocated to the US where he remains as a consultant to Rio on China and elsewhere in Asia.

Mr Bauert is a Rio veteran of more than than 30 years, a fluent Mandarin speaker, and was responsible for opening Rio’s first office in China in 1983. His appointment is the most senior for Rio in China, a country that accounts for close to 20 per cent of group sales.

Being a Chinese expert, Mr Bauert was one of the first to alert the investment community to China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for Australian resources. In a 2006 presentation in Perth, he quoted a Chinese proverb, believing it to demonstrate that Rio was uniquely placed to meet China’s demands, compared with the ambitions of new entrants to the industry: ”You can’t satisfy hunger by painting a cake.”

Rio managing director Tom Albanese said Mr Bauert’s appointment underlined the ”importance the company places on enhancing its relationship with China”.

Rio Tinto Alcan sells majority stake in Ghana Bauxite to Chinese firm

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010

The aluminium division of Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto has sold its 80 per cent stake in Ghana Bauxite Company Ltd. to private a Chinese firm.

Financial details of the sale to Bosai Minerals Group were not disclosed. The remaining 20 per cent of the operation is owned by the West African government, which first partnered with Rio Tinto in 1974.

The head of Rio Tinto Alcan’s bauxite and alumina business said the sale was the best way to ensure the bauxite operation’s long-term sustainability.

“After conducting a thorough evaluation of our options, it was determined that, while Ghana Bauxite Company is a quality operation, its size is not aligned with our long-term strategy,” said Steve Hodgson, president and CEO of Rio Tinto Alumina and Bauxite.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto Alcan said it will spend US$300,000 to extend its support of development plans of the Bibiani Anhwiaso Bekwai District, which houses the bauxite operations. The commitment through 2012 will assist local Ghanaian and international groups improve health, education, water and sanitation.

Ghana Bauxite employs 299 people and produced 802,000 tonnes of bauxite in 2008.

Rio Tinto has sold more than US$10 billion of assets to help pay off debt built up with the 2007 purchase of Alcan for US$38.1 billion.