Shares in Chalco jumped this morning, after yesterday’s announcement of a tie up with Rio Tinto in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea. The signing ceremony, held in the Great Hall of the People here in Beijing, has been well-reported by all the major media companies, so I won’t repeat the details here.
I would like to ask a couple of questions however.
Nowhere in any of the press that I have read has anyone reported the views of the Guinean Government about the deal. Sure, it has been said that the government may exercise its option to take up to 20% of the equity, but have they actually approved the entry by Chalco into the equity structure? it would be a great loss of face, after yesterday’s ceremony, if the Government turned around and said no.
Of course, this is unlikely. It has been said that the only reason Rio has taken Chalco as a partner is to help it with its negotiations with the Guinean Government. China has been quietly supporting and funding the government for some time, so this is probably payback time.
Second, what other reason could Rio possibly have for taking Chalco as a partner. Rio does not need expertise in building mine infrastructure and logistics – it has done the Pilbara for instance. Chalco has no experience in foreign iron ore mines, or large scale infrastructure projects. Perhaps Rio was hoping Chalco would have easy access to additional funds.
Third, why is everyone getting so excited? Sure, Chalco is getting a low price for a high equity position ($1.4bn for 45%), but payback is 5 years away, and the project will need up to another $6 billion in funding in order to get the ore to market. Anyone who has invested in mine projects knows that the money you stump up at first has to be topped up if you want to retain your equity value.
Finally, who owns the marketing rights to the ore? Hopefully Rio will retain the rights. Otherwise, they will be competing with themselves. In a supply-constrained world, it might not be a problem, but a long-term venture such as this needs protection built in for all scenarios, including the time when buyers control the price, not sellers.