Reuters is reporting that the CNIA has asked the Strategic Reserves Board (SRB) to purchase metal in order to revive the price. A report in the Financial Times says the CNIA has also called for an investigation into short selling. Asking the SRB to buy metal is wrong on so many counts. Fundamentally, it ignores […]
SHFE aluminium prices are low enough, but the prices are low all the way to Thanksgiving 2016. What I mean is, SHFE forward prices are under RMB10,000 for a full 12 months ahead. The market is not only pricing in a poor immediate situation, it’s also saying there’s little to no contango. In the local […]
It is looking like the RMB10,000 barrier will be broken today. The China aluminium price is teetering on the edge, with Shanghai cash sitting at RMB9,950 and Changjiang at RMB9,960. That puts it at US$1,570 including VAT, or US$1,340 on a straight comparison with the LME. However, the SHFE price is still sitting […]
This was the view of a leading Chinese academic, Wang Tao, when I interviewed him about the new “inti-petcoke” law in China. Mr Wang, from the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy was talking about the potential impact on the international aluminium community, if China were to stop or reduce exports of low sulphur petcoke. Mr […]
Last month at the China Aluminium Forum, I predicted that the SHFE would broach the RMB10,000 mark. In some senses it wasn’t a bold prediction, since the price was hovering at that time around the RMB10,500 mark. But my concern was that demand was now entrenched at lower levels, but supply showed few signs […]
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