Gross domestic product grew 8.9 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. Economists had predicted 8.9 per cent growth, although widespread market whispers over the past week had pointed to a figure of 9.1 per cent. In the second quarter, GDP advanced 7.9 per cent.

“Good figures. Economic growth has picked up very swiftly. There’s no doubt that GDP will hit 8 percent for the whole year,” said Wang Hu, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai.

Today’s figures may spur policy makers to consider how to withdraw record fiscal and monetary stimulus next year without triggering a slowdown in the world’s third-biggest economy.

Qin Xiao, chairman of China Merchants Bank, this week warned that the measures risk inflating asset bubbles, saying it’s ”urgent that China shifts from a loose monetary policy.”

”We see a rising risk that policy makers may be unwilling or unable to tighten aggressively, making an asset-price bubble likely,” said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong, citing the government’s focus on fueling growth and creating jobs.

China’s cabinet said late yesterday that it will maintain stimulus measures even after the economy exceeded officials’ expectations for the first nine months of the year. The State Council also signaled that inflation concern will be an increasing focus of policymaking.

Industrial output climbs

Surging auto sales helped industrial production to rise 13.9 per cent in September from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than a year, today’s data showed. Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen AG, the biggest overseas carmaker in China, sold a record 150,000 vehicles in the nation in September.

Urban fixed-asset investment climbed 33.3 per cent in the first nine months from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said, as the 4 trillion yuan ($635 billion) stimulus plan spurred the construction of roads and power plants. Retail sales gained 15.5 per cent in September.

Consumer prices fell 0.8 per cent in September, the smallest decline since prices started falling in February. Producer prices slid 7 per cent.

The acceleration in economic growth means the government is more likely to meet its target of an 8 per cent expansion this year to create jobs and maintain social stability.

‘Tougher job’

The nation has countered an 11-month slide in exports with the stimulus package and a record $US1.27 trillion in new loans this year. Policy makers also, from July last year, halted the yuan’s gains against the dollar, providing support to exporters battered by the contraction in overseas demand.

”Compared with pouring money into the economy, draining money from the economy is a much tougher job for central banks,” Qin, the chairman of China’s fifth-largest bank by market value, wrote in the Financial Times. ”The dilemma is this: if we tighten monetary policy, there is a high possibility of a `second dip’ next year; and if we continue the loose policy, another asset bubble might be not far away.”

In yesterday’s State Council statement, China’s government said ”the policy focus of the next few months is to balance the need to maintain stable and relatively fast growth, the need to adjust the economic structure and the need to better manage inflationary expectations.”

The ”change in rhetoric” suggests a tighter policy stance may be on the way, with an increase in banks’ reserve requirements possible in the first quarter of next year, said Mark Williams, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd.

Stimulus risks

The Asian Development Bank has warned that keeping stimulus measures for too long risks diverting money into stocks and real estate, eroding bank asset quality and stoking inflation. Banking regulator Liu Mingkang warned yesterday of rising credit risks for banks and also told them to be ready for shifts in government policy, while the central bank said on Oct. 20 that inflation pressures are gradually building.

The 68 per cent gain in the Shanghai Composite Index this year and a 73 per cent increase in property sales in the first nine months highlight the risk of asset bubbles.

”This emergency intervention has been executed very fast and very successfully,” Yolanda Fernandez Lommen, chief China economist at the Asian Development Bank in Beijing, said in an interview last week. ”The question now is how long can the economy sustain the stimulus package and when is the moment to exit these policies?”

An exit may not be easy without unnerving investors: A plunge in July loan growth sent the benchmark stock index down more than 20 per cent in August.

”China’s recovery is based on bank lending and infrastructure investment, not exports,” said Alaistair Chan, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. ”Exports remain weak. The government will not remove stimulus measures soon.”