Monthly Archives: February 2011
After a full day of meetings, this seems to be the message doing the rounds of the Marriott Lobby today.
Of course, AZ China is part of the problem. Our view, that anode grade coke is going to be short this year, has not been met with any resistance or counter arguments. So far, the discussion has been more about what the effect will be on price.
Meantime, the message from the office back in Beijing is that coke prices are growing strongly. A week or two ago, we were hearing prices around the US$330 mark (2% - 2.5% S, fob.) Today we are hearing prices $20 - $30 above that. Or more commonly, “don’t ask me - I don’t have any coke.”
In an hour or so, we will be heading to the BP Party, then tomorrow another full day of meetings. It will be interesting to see if the “coke is short” message will be continued.
Though I have to say, it was the same message last year. Somehow or the other, the market struggled through regardless what was said in February 2010.
Paul Adkins, Sheena Patel (CRU)
TMS would not be the same without the Sunday evening cocktail reception, hosted by the good people at Jacobs. In a very real sense, the Sunday evening reception is the heart and soul of the TMS week, with all the meetings either side of Sunday evening being the head.
Seemed like a pretty good crowd. My guess maybe 250 - 300 people, renewing year-old acquaintances and making some new ones.
Here are some photos we took from the evening. Let’s call the theme of these photos, “Spot the friends; spot the competitors.” Score yourself 10 points for spotting friends, 5 points for competitors - after all, friends are much more valuable.
Guo Yunfei, Liu Tao
Yasmin Brown, Paul Adkins
Word from the shoe shine guy in the Marriott Lobby is that a certain Mediterranean-based aluminium fluoride plant is up for sale.
Apparently an international accounting firm has been touting the business around some capital investment companies, and my source (ok, it wasn’t really the shoe shine guy) wanted to know if I knew the company. Yes, I do, in fact I visited the plant back in 2003.
Clearly there’s more to the story than my source knows, or revealed. At the right price, it could be a good investment, as the mediterranean is so far from the huge smelters in the Middle East. But first a prospective buyer would have to check if the story is true.
I am blogging a little out of order, but that’s what happens in TMS - meetings and appointments blur into one, meeting times come and go like lightning.
Tonight a bunch of Aussies got together for a night out. Maybe it is the first of many years of future get togethers, but more likely it’s simply the Aussie penchant for getting out and having fun.
It was good to get together in a relaxed environment, with no (or almost no) selling, position-taking, but still a generous amount of bovine excrementing.
But wait! Who is that character on the left? Is he really Australian?
We weren’t sure initially, but he assured us that he supported the Australian Soccer team in the Asia Cup finals in Qatar recently.
Then, during the meal, clearly wanting to establish his credentials once and for all, he took a taste of a Thai green vegetable curry, and exclaimed at the top of his voice, “Ooo, that’s spicy.”
Anyone wondering if he was really Indian quickly put those doubts to rest.
Bumped into Richard Hamel this afternoon, who tells me with more than a little glint in his eyes that he will retire Monday 28th of February.
I have known Richard for several years, and found him to be a very astute professional. Richard made several trips to China over the years, and was a leader when it came to strategy development for the Middle Kingdom for his employer.
Richard’s wife was with him this afternoon, and she seemed mighty pleased about this new chapter in Richard’s life. But when it comes whether this is his last TMS, I have my doubts. Richard didn’t say so, but I suspect there will be a shingle outside the front door before too long.
Here we are in San Diego, in Southern California, where, according to the song, it doesn’t rain but it does pour. And that’s what’s in store for TMS attendees as they start wending their way here.
It is going to make for some havoc during the usual hourly migration of people to and from hotels and to and from technical papers. Hopefully all the hotels have plenty of umbrellas. It should be good news too for the bars and restaurants down here in lower fourth, fifth and sixth streets. Punters won’t want to walk too far in the rain.
If you are attending TMS and are Australian, or at least you like vegemite and know the words to the Australian unofficial anthem (hint - it has lots of “Aussie” and “Oi” in it), then come join us for an Aussie night out in San Diego this coming Saturday night.
Contact Chris Baker or myself for details.
If you are staying at the Marriott, the Hyatt or any of the other hotels along the strip by the conference centre, be sure to get a room away from the train line.
At precisely 4am this morning, a train came into the station. Noisy enough, but it sounded its air horn at least 4 times in the approach, guaranteeing that we all woke up.
It’s now 6.30am and another train is doing its best to act like a rooster.
At least, I think it was a train. I am reminded by an ancient (1960s ear) entertainer who did sound impressions. On an LP called “the great duck hunt” this guy - I forget his name - did an amazing array of sounds using nothing but his mouth and a microphone. He tells the story of how he fitted his car with giant speakers and a microphone, and used to drive through a small town each night around midnight, making the sound of a diesel electric. The thing was, the town didn’t have a railway line, so residents used to jump out of bed looking for the ghost train.
Now I remember what happened at TMS 2003….
We arrived at the Marriott Hotel today and immediately discovered that the main lobby is in the north tower, but most of the seating is in the south tower. And the seating is limited and clumped together.
Quiet discussions with supplier or customers are going to be difficult. Private meetings with competitors will be impossible.
That’s what happened in 2003 - groups of 3 or 4 people could be seen, hour in, hour out, wandering around looking for a quiet nook. Meetings were truncated or started late. A frustrating conference.
Following my live blogging from TMS last year, I have decided to post a few entries again this year, and some photos if I can upload them. The iPad will make blogging a whole lot easier.
Why call this post number 0? Because TMS hasn’t really started yet. But the AZ trio arrived in SD this morning, ready and raring to go. Of course, the jet lag hasn’t kicked in yet…
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